NOTE: This is my own version of draw analysis on 2010 Shanghai Rolex Masters. In this self-version of draw analysis, I will pick who I think will be 2010 Shanghai Rolex Masters Champion.
The 2009 ATP Masters 1000 Tournament of the Year will stage its 2010 edition known as the Shanghai Rolex Masters. With the world's top 20 competing for the coveted title, this will be a strong field ATP Masters 1000 has.
Lead by world No.1 Rafael Nadal, the 2009 ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai runner-up, is looking for this record-breaking 19th ATP Masters 1000 shield, in addition to his three claycourt Masters and three Grand Slam titles of the year. As last year's finalist who lost to Nikolay Davydenko, will this Nadal's chance to conquer Shanghai with flying colors?
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| Nikolay Davydenko 2009 Shanghai ATP Masters 1000 Champion |
World No.3 Novak Djokovic returns as No.2 seed, has a chance to clinch his 18th ATP title at Beijing, China. In his Asian tour stop, can he claimed his first ATP Masters 1000 title of the year?
There's nothing more interesting but to see world No.3 Roger Federer back since he lost his semifinal match to Djokovic at this year's US Open. Will he be able to regroup and capture another ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai? Can he match Nadal's 18th ATP Masters 1000 titles?
As ATP conquers Asia, world's top 20 players will surely bring exciting and interesting matches, most especially for their Chinese fans. With world's top three players - Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic, already qualified for 2010 ATP World Tour Finals in London, who will be able to collect enough points to be included in the year-end championships?
The Quarters - Part 1
Awarded with a frist-round bye, Nadal awaits the winner of the match between Gilles Simon and Stanislas Wawrinka. This match will surely bring up the Shanghai Qi Zhong Tennis Center a good reason to start the event. With Nadal leads in the career head-to-head on both players, 4-1 against Simon and 6-0 against Wawrinka, whoever meets Nadal in the second round, the No.1 seed will surely have an advantage to gets past his possible opponent.
Mardy Fish, who opens his match against rising star Denis Istomin, could potentially meet Jurgen Melzer in the second round. With both players having a great 2010 season, the consistent one will surely have an advantage. Melzer is leading Fish 4-1 in their career meetings, with Melzer winning three consecutive match since 2006 in Metz. Will Fish be able to snapped his losing streak against the Austrian and take the challenge from world No.1?
Meanwhile, Fish has yet to score a win against Nadal as he is trailing 0-5 in their career meetings. Given their current forms producing fantastic results, who will charge to quarterfinals?
In the bottom half of this section lies the defending champion Davydenko, who thrashed Nadal in straight sets in last year's final. With Nadal experiencing a little bit of slump in 2009, it is interesting to see a repeat of their 2009 match for a place in the final.
But before anything else, Davydenko who awarded a first-round bye could possibly meet Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round, who opens his campaign against a qualifier. With Davydenko not in good form as in 2009 that gave him three titles, he is facing an upset as tricky Stakhovsky is enjoying a good 2010 season.
Another intriguing first round match will be underway as Fernando Verdasco meets the dark horse Thiemo de Bakker. Verdasco, who hasn't been the same since winning 2010 Barcelona Open, must perform well in order to be qualified for the season-ending championships at London. Should he gets past de Bakker, a possible encounter with Juan Monaco is looming, as he opens his match against a qualifier. But Monaco is not having a good year, though could pull an upset. Will the Spaniard escape the challenges he will face before he possibly meet Davydenko?
Verdasco's sole win against Davydenko was way back 2005 at Italian Open. With Davydenko leading 7-1 against Verdasco and both has no form of a champion at the moment, it will be a matter of playing out of their comfort zone. Who will meet Nadal in the quarters? Who will collect extra points in order to qualify in the year-end championships?
Davydenko is one of the players with winning record against Nadal, 5-4. The Russian has won three consecutive matches against the Spaniard since winning ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai last year until 2010 Doha tournament. A year has passed and it seems their fortune has switched, with Nadal in good form and Davydenko in a bit of slump, will Nadal be able to snapped his losing streak against the Russian to even their score?
Semifinalist: Nadal
Match to watch: The opening match between Simon and Wawrinka is no less than interesting, as both fathers and both slowly climbing back to the top, will be contesting each other to meet Nadal. Who will be in charge to meet the Spaniard?
Match to watch: The opening match between Simon and Wawrinka is no less than interesting, as both fathers and both slowly climbing back to the top, will be contesting each other to meet Nadal. Who will be in charge to meet the Spaniard?
The Quarters - Part 2
World No.4 Andy Murray may have a disappointing season in terms of Grand Slam events. The season is not over yet and there's still a couple of major tournaments to make a statement for himself, most especially the year-end championships which is held at his hometown. Before he gets there, he needs to be qualified first.
Murray awaits the winner of the match against Radek Stepanek or Yan Bai in the second round. Stepanek, who has been laid off due injury, will try to put pressure on Murray, but would the be enough to score an upset?
In the third round, Murray could face a potential meeting with Marcos Baghdatis or Nicolas Almagro, whose first round match will be against the tricky Alexandr Dolgopolov. Baghdatis is not yet at his best which brought him to 2006 Australian Open final, but he can upset anyone, while Almagro needs to be consistently bang his service in order to outplay Murray.
The likes of 2010 US Open semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny, Sam Querrey, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Feliciano Lopez will battle each other to reach quarters, to face the No.4 seed. Among the four, Youhzny will be the one to beat and needs perform well in order to be qualified at ATP World Tour Finals.
Murray leads 2-0 against Youhzny in their career meetings. Such lead gave Murray enough boost to book a spot in the semifinals. But with Youhzny's current form cannot be counted out as he will surely give Murray a fight before facing No.1 seed Nadal.
Semifinalist: Murray
Match to watch: Dolgopolov is a tricky player to face and already scored a win over top 20 player, while Almagro is a clay court player and a good hard court player too. It's battle of experience and age, but who's talent will progress?
Match to watch: Dolgopolov is a tricky player to face and already scored a win over top 20 player, while Almagro is a clay court player and a good hard court player too. It's battle of experience and age, but who's talent will progress?
The Quarters - Part 3
Is Federer really hates big hitters? He should not, as his section of the draw is a place of big hitters. Therefore, like it or hate it, he must face three of them before he reach the semifinals.
Who are these big hitters am I talking about? There's Robin Soderling, Federer's potential quarterfinal foe. But Soderling needs to beat his potential third round opponent David Ferrer, who opens his match against Michael Llodra and a possible meeting with Thomaz Bellucci in the second round.
If Federer felt awkward to face a big hitter, how about meeting a big hitter that stands more than 6'5" tall? Such a tough road to progress. A possible encounter with John Isner in the second round is tough challenge to escape. Though Federer scored a four-set win against Isner in their sole meeting in 2007 US Open round of 32, Federer must be aware that he is facing a different Isner three years ago. Can Federer escape?
If Federer able to escape on Isner's challenge, a potential meeting with Marin Cilic in third round is looming. Cilic, who opens his match against Andreas Seppi, could possible meet Yen-Hsun Lu in the second round. With Cilic having a disappointing 2010 season, does anybody have a guts to spoil the anticipated Federer-Soderling match?
Federer may not be the same as his old self. How will his improvements he worked on will respond to the bunch of big hitters he will face? Whether he likes it or hates it, Federer must indeed respond.
Semifinalist: Federer
Match to watch: Did I overlook the first round meeting between Llodra and Ferrer? I should not, as this will be one of the intriguing opening matchups to start the event. This match will surely give Chinese people a treat.
Match to watch: Did I overlook the first round meeting between Llodra and Ferrer? I should not, as this will be one of the intriguing opening matchups to start the event. This match will surely give Chinese people a treat.
The Quarters - Part 4
No.2 seed Djokovic has making a statement that he can be a top player. By reaching US Open final for the second time, losing to Nadal, he continuously matched it by reaching the final at China Open where he face Ferrer. Another win will surely give Djokovic one step high in level of confidence. Benefited from the first-round bye, he could potentially face Ivan Ljubicic in the second round. Good start to open his campaign, but Ljubicic challenge is tough to face. Is upset happening?
How about facing 2010 Japan Open runner-up Gael Monfils or Richard Gasquest, whose opening round match will be against Ernests Gulbis, in the third round? A pool of dark horses will try to upset Djokovic, who can make it?
If Federer is facing tons of big hitters, Djokovic is facing a couple of big servers. Tomas Berdych and Andy Roddick will try to chase down their opponents challenge to book a spot in the quarterfinals. Berdych could potentially face Tommy Robredo in his opnening match, while Roddick should gets past Philipp Kohlschreiber in opening round and 2010 Thailand Open champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Eduardo Schwank in the second round.
Roddick leads Berdych 6-2 in their career meetings. They met three times this year all on hard courts, all were won by Roddick, with the latest at ATP Masters 1000 Miami final. But the four-match winning streak by Roddick was started in 2009 Wimbledon round of 16. Can Berdych snapped it to face Djokovic in a repeat of 2010 Wimbledon semifinals?
Berdych make a statement when he reach two consecutive semifinals at this year's French Open, losing to Soderling, and Wimbledon, defeated Djokovic, to reach his final at Grand Slam event losing to eventual champion Nadal. He bombard Djokovic with his booming serves and dangerous groundstrokes. But came hard court season, he wasn't able to perform well. Will a repeat matchup yields the same result?
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Match to watch: Is Gulbis a future top 10 player? Is Gasquet comeback will not be halted anymore? As these two players battle their way through the latter round of the draw, only one will survive. They are both named as underachiever, but using their immensed talent, they can be more dangerous. Who will survive?
Match to watch: Is Gulbis a future top 10 player? Is Gasquet comeback will not be halted anymore? As these two players battle their way through the latter round of the draw, only one will survive. They are both named as underachiever, but using their immensed talent, they can be more dangerous. Who will survive?
The Semifinals
Nadal vs. Murray: They met three times this year with Murray winning two of them, all on hard courts at Melbourne and Toronto, while Nadal winning once, on grass at All-Club. Nadal, who is enjoying his lead against Murray with 8-4, they are tied at 4-4 on hard court matches. Murray knows how to solve Nadal's riddle on hard courts, as he shown on his latest result at Toronto. Can he back it up? Nadal in tight three sets.
Federer vs. Djokovic: After 2007 ATP Tour Dubai quarterfinals, Federer and Djokovic has met in semifinals or finals of any tournament, starting from 2007 ATP Masters 1000 Canada to 2010 US Open. Their established rivalry has produced exciting and high quality tennis, battling styles and tactics. Their 13 meetings on hard courts is where their talents exposed the most.
With their current head-to-head overall stands at 10-6 in Federer's favor, their current head-to-head record on hard courts tallied at 8-5 also in Federer's favor. Their latest encounter was at 2010 US Open, where Djokovic saved two match points to reach his third career Grand Slam final. Does Djokovic finds a way to overcame Federer at any tournament they faced? Federer in tight three sets.
Finalists: Nadal, Federer
The Finals
Is it kinda bit strange that Nadal and Federer will meet in the final of a tournament as worlds No.1 and No.3, respectively? Maybe yes, as they've been worlds top two players for about three to four years. But it doesn't matter anyway. What matters is that they will continue their rivalry since their meeting at 2010 ATP Masters 1000 Madrid final.
This potential encounter marks their seventh meeting on hard courts in their storied rivalry after 21 meetings. Currently tied at 3-3, Nadal has started to conquer his archrival on hard courts where he previously reigned. With Nadal currently dominating the tour, will he be able to surpass Federer on the surface that hasn't been kind to him? Or Federer is still in command?
This match is not only intriguing but highly anticipated. A win for Federer will give him a record-tying 18th ATP Masters 1000 shield with his rival Nadal. A win for Nadal will totally runaway a record-breaking 19th ATP Masters 1000 title. To whom will the history be written? Federer in tight three sets.
Champion: Roger Federer
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