NOTE: This is my own version of draw analysis on 2010 BNP Paribas Masters. In this self-version of draw analysis, I will pick who I think will be 2010 BNP Paribas Masters Champion.
The Palais Omnisports in Bercy is set for the ninth and final ATP World Tour Masters 1000 of the year with nine of the top 10 are vying to win the prestigious title. This event will also decide who will be qualified in the ATP World Tour Finals in London with three remaining spots.
World No.1 Rafael Nadal withdrew from this event citing medical reasons, therefore world No.2 Roger Federer will benefit that withdrawal to be awarded as the top seed, followed by 2009 BNP Paribas Masters champion Novak Djokovic, who topped local hope Gael Monfils in last year's finale. With Nadal's absence, can Djokovic successfully defend his title in French capital after he failed to defend his title at Davidoff Swiss Indoors in Basel, Switzerland losing to Federer 4-6|6-3|1-6?
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| Novak Djokovic 2009 BNP Paribas Masters Champion |
In the current top 10, two of them have been the BNP Paribas Masters champion, the last one is Djokovic in 2009 and the other one is Berdych in 2005.
Since 2000, the only player who has been successful in this event is former world No.1 and now-retired Marat Safin. He won this event three times, since his first trip at No.1 in 2000, then in 2002 and 2004. Nadal has been a finalist in 2007 losing to David Nalbandian in the finale. Federer has not been so successful in this indoor hartcourt event, with his strong showing is the quarterfinal stage in 2002, 2003, and 2008. Can this be Federer's year to perform well at Bercy?
The battle for the three remaining spots for ATP World Tour Finals intensifies to its extent and will be determined by a candidates who performs well. With 1000 points to offer, who will rack up enough points to secure the qualifications in the season finale? The five players with a high chance to be qualified in London are Tomas Berdych with 3,665 points at No.6, Andy Roddick with 3,485 points at No.7, David Ferrer who is trailing Roddick by 40 points at No.8 with 3,445, Fernando Verdasco with 3,150 at No.9, and Mikhail Youhzny with 2,910 points at No.10. Who will make it to the finale? Is there someone outside the top 10 ATP Race who can make a surprise run to the finals in London? Let's say Jurgen Melzer.
The BNP Paribas Masters, just like the French Open, has been so unpredictable when it comes to producing champions. Upsets can happen at early rounds and this time for those who are in the position to be qualified in London that can be costly.
The Quarters - Part 1
The top seed Federer, who avenges his loss to Djokovic in his hometown at Basel in 2009 for his 65th career title, has given a first-round bye and will start his opening match against the winner of the battle between two local hopes Richard Gasquet and wildcard Nicolas Mahut. Federer was upset by Julien Benneteau in front of his home crowd. Is Federer facing same fortune again? Definitely not.
Been laid off by injuries in the first half of the season, Radek Stepanek is trying to regain his old form. He open his match against lucky loser Michael Russell and will probably meet No.14 seed Nicolas Almagro in the second round. This will be their second meeting since 2005 at ATP Masters Series Rome, with Stepanek winning that sole duel to lead 1-0.
As a clay-court specialist Almagro been defeated by Stepanek, how much more on indoor hardcourt? Should Stepanek advanced he will meet the Swiss Maestro Federer in the third round. But Federer has won the last four meeting they contested to lead their head-to-head series 8-2, as well as all the four hardcourt event they battled on. Therefore, Federer once again will be in the quarterfinals for the fourth time at Bercy. Who will stop him?
No.7 seed Ferrer opens his BNP Paribas Masters campaign in the second round awaiting the winner of the match between Michael Berrer and Fabio Fognini. Likewise, No.11 seed Melzer begin his match against the winner of the match between Thiemo de Bakker and Santiago Giraldo. Should both Ferrer and Melzer win their respective opening matches, they will square off for a place in the quarterfinals. Their last meeting came at Roland Garros this year with Melzer emerged as victorious to score his first win against Ferrer in four meetings. Melzer's win ended Ferrer's winning streak against him. Can Melzer repeat such winning ways against Ferrer? Or Ferrer gets revenge of that loss at 2010 French Open?
Though Melzer has beaten Nadal at ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai, it will be a neck-to-neck, toe-to-toe match against an in-form Ferrer and most probably there could be no repeat performance of such upset in Shanghai. Having said that, Ferrer gets a chance to meet Federer in the quarterfinals. Can Ferrer stop Federer from advancing to his first ever semifinal appearance at Bercy?
Federer, with perfect 10 record against Ferrer, it seems like ending that winning streak is highly impossible at the moment. But Federer's history in this event will do so, is this the chance Ferrer is waiting for, as he is closing on to solve Federer's puzzle?
Semifinalist: Federer
Match to watch: Gasquet versus Mahut match will surely give local fans something to cheer about. But the sad story is that one local hopeful will be eliminated at early stage. Gasquet is still trying to recapture his old self, while Mahut has never been consistent since losing 70-68 fifth set at Wimbledon.
Match to watch: Gasquet versus Mahut match will surely give local fans something to cheer about. But the sad story is that one local hopeful will be eliminated at early stage. Gasquet is still trying to recapture his old self, while Mahut has never been consistent since losing 70-68 fifth set at Wimbledon.
The Quarters - Part 2
No.3 seed Andy Murray, who failed to defend his title at Valencia but clinches his first ATP World Tour doubles title in that event partnering his brother Jamie Murray, open his match against the winner of the match between Valencia finalist Marcel Granollers and Basel quarterfinalist Nalbandian. Will Granollers be able to sustain his level of play against Nalbandian?
Given a first-round bye, No.13 seed Marin Cilic opens his match against unseeded Sergiy Stakhovsky or qualifier Illya Marchenko. Both Cilic and Stakhovsky have two title to date, but Cilic has not been same as 2009, will Stakhovsky score an upset to book a place in the third round?
Currently at nineth position on ATP Race, No.6 seed Fernando Verdasco awaits the winner of the match between local hopeful Arnaud Clement and fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez. Clement, with a help of local fans will surely spoiled the meeting between Verdasco and Lopez, but would that be enough?
How about Denis Istomin facing Benjamin Becker and the winner will get a chance to meet No.12 seed Monfils? The 2009 BNP Paribas Masters finalist will try once more to get better of his last year's performance. Can he finally lift the trophy as what Jo-Wilfried Tsonga did in 2008?
Unseeded Nalbandian get better off Murray in Toronto this year to lead 2-1 in their career meetings. Nalbandian, as always been dangerous, can pull off an upset again. Murray, who falls to unseeded Juan Monaco in the second round of recently concluded Valencia Open, might got same fortune again against Nalbandian. If Nalbandian advanced, he will possible meet Cilic to book a spot in the quarterfinals. The 2007 BNP Paribas Masters champion has won his two previous meeting against Cilic. Is Nalbandian ready to go deep in the draw?
No.6 seed Verdasco and No.12 seed Monfils could possibly meet in the third round. Their sole meeting was in 2008 at ATP Masters Series Monte-Carlo where Monfils edged Verdasco. Verdasco will surely be boosted by his chances of playing once again in London, but he need to overcame the home crowd that will support Monfils. Can Monfils go all the way to the finals, again?
Verdasco enjoyed his winning streak against Nalbandian which now stands at 2-0. Verdasco ended Nalbandian's US Open campaign this year in their meeting in the round of 32. Given that Verdasco hasn't been performing so well at Bercy, will Nalbandian take advantage of such crisis?
Semifinalist: Nalbandian
Player to watch: Granollers, a lucky loser who have been a finalist at Valencia Open. How far will he go when he met Nalbandian in his opening match? Can he still pull off an upset and of course, a deep run in the draw?
Player to watch: Granollers, a lucky loser who have been a finalist at Valencia Open. How far will he go when he met Nalbandian in his opening match? Can he still pull off an upset and of course, a deep run in the draw?
The Quarters - Part 3
Eighth seeded Roddick needed to perform well to secure his place for ATP World Tour Finals. Can Roddick make a deep run if he belongs in the section of the draw where huge servers and big hitters reside?
Roddick opens his ATP Masters 1000 Paris campaign against the winner of the match Xavier Malisse and Jarkko Nieminen. The left-hander will most likely to advanced to meet the American. This will surely be Roddick's first test needed to escape as the Nieminen is a tricky opponent. Who would ever thought that their previous and only meeting is on claycourt at Roland Garros this year where Roddick won in dramatic five sets? If Roddick gets advanced, a series of challenges awaits him.
Ernests Gulbis, one of the tour's underachiever and considered late bloomer until this year where he display his talents, opens his match against Juan Ignacio Chela. The winner will face one of the season-ending championships hopeful, Youzhny. Facing a potential opponent in the second round, Gulbis, whose record against Youzhny is tied at 1-1, will surely treat fans with an exciting match as both players are revealing more of themselves this year.
But the No.9 seed and in-form Youzhny has a lot to offer and facing Roddick for a place in the quarterfinals will decide who will be the frontrunner in the remaining spots for London finals. With Roddick leading Youzhny 3-2 in their head-to-head series, can Youzhny finds a way to end Roddick's winning streak against him? Or Roddick will continue to dominate Youzhny?
The counterpart of this draw is where No.4 seed Robin Soderling, resurgent Gilles Simon, Swiss No.2 Stanislas Wawrinka, and No.15 seed Ivan Ljubicic reside. Which of them will move on to meet Roddick in the quarterfinals?
The highly possible matchup between Soderling and Simon, who opens up his match against Andrey Golubev, is highly anticipated. Simon found his form again which lifted him to top 10 in previous years will give Soderling a fight. With Soderling leads 3-2 over Simon, but Simon leads Soderling on hardcourt wins, 2-1. Will Simon prevents the Swede going through the third round, of course, knowing the crowd will surely be on his side?
How about Ljubicic's potential encounter against Wawrinka, who opens his match against Josselin Ouanna? Ljubicic, one of the ATP Masters 1000 title holder this year, leads Wawrinka 3-2. They have a draw record on hardcourts, 2-2.
Soderling has a way to escape Simon, that is to boom big serves, but Wawrinka can mix his shots to not let Ljubicic dictate the match. Is the Soderling-Wawrinka match will be pushed through? It might be. Soderling tied Wawrinka on hardcourt wins, but Wawrinka won their latest encounter in ATP Masters 1000 Rome on clay. Can Soderling scores a win against Wawrinka to level their head-to-head record?
Wawrinka might edge Roddick in their three encounters, but their last meeting at ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai in 2009 was due to Roddick's retirement. This is critical for Roddick as he moved down to eighth place in ATP Race. A win against Wawrinka will strengthen his place for London finale. Will he progress or will he falter?
Semifinalist: Wawrinka
Player to watch: Gulbis comes back strong since winning at Delray and laid-off by injury. Can he do much damage in his section of the draw?
Player to watch: Gulbis comes back strong since winning at Delray and laid-off by injury. Can he do much damage in his section of the draw?
The Quarters - Part 4
Defending champion and No.2 seed Djokovic is back at Bercy and his title defense will start after determining the winner of the match between Sam Querrey and Juan Monaco. Djokovic is 3-0 over Querrey and is 3-0 against Monaco. As the No.2 seed is currently playing his best tennis, the challenge against his opponent will not be a big problem. However, can he avoid exhaustion?
Lurking for a potential third round opponent is No.16 seed John Isner, who will possibly meet Michael Llodra in the second round. Djokovic is 2-0 over Isner, but the 6'9" American can use his killing serves against his opponent. Can Isner finally score a win against Djokovic?
No.5 seed Berdych might be safe in the current ATP Race, but he needs to secure it it he really wants to belong in the eight-man team finale in London. He is prone to upset, but facing tricky opponents such as Albert Montanes and Florent Serra will ensure his win? How about facing the currently slumping Nikolay Davydenko or a winner of the match between Thomaz Bellucci and Philipp Kohlschreiber? Berdych could possibly meet Davydenko in the third round. Consistency will surely be the key when they meet, but who's groundstrokes possess enough power to advanced?
Given these scenarios, Djokovic's chances of reaching semifinals is high. Can he go all the way after failing to defend his title at Basel, losing to Federer in three sets?
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Player to watch: Davydenko, the 2006 BNP Paribas Masters champion has produced mediocre performance due to injuries and will not be qualified for London finale. As a former champion, can he do it once again to give himself something to boost before ending the 2010 ATP season?
Player to watch: Davydenko, the 2006 BNP Paribas Masters champion has produced mediocre performance due to injuries and will not be qualified for London finale. As a former champion, can he do it once again to give himself something to boost before ending the 2010 ATP season?
The Semifinals
Federer vs. Nalbandian: They meet 16 times from 2002 to 2007, with both winning eight matches each. From 2008 onwards, Federer able to snatch two wins to move ahead against his long-time rival. The top seed Federer recently won his fourth title at Basel and he is in command to do better in French capital. Can he go all the way at this event for the first time over Nalbandian? Federer in straight sets.
Wawrinka vs. Djokovic: This will be the 11th edition of their career meetings as Djokovic continues to dominate Wawrinka since winning their fifth encounter at ATP Masters Series Indian Wells in 2008. However, with Djokovic's form, what tactics can Wawrinka employ in order to prevent Djokovic from defending his title? This will surely be a tough task for Wawrinka, can he end his losing streak against Djokovic? Djokovic in straight sets.
Finalists: Federer, Djovokic
The Finals
This will be the 19th episode of Federer-Djokovic rivalry and their second consecutive finals since their championship match at Basel with Federer avenging his loss to Djokovic in 2009. This will be their fifth meeting of the year with Federer leading 3-1 against Djokovic. As the defending champion, will Djokovic let Federer play in his terms and fail to defend his title again? Nah. The Basel will be enough, but backed it up with a win in Paris will be too much.
But reaching ATP Masters 1000 Paris finals for the first time, can give Federer a high level of confidence. Since this is a rare opportunity, Federer will not let it slip away from his hands. Are we smelling title No.66 for Federer? Maybe, but hopefully. Again, this is a much awaited match and the fans will enjoy another shotmaking skills and high quality to be displayed by both players. Not bad for a treat, huh?! Of course, Federer will win in three sets.
Champion: Roger Federer
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Novak Djokovic reaches semi-finals ATP BNP Paribas Open tennis semifinal. Watch Novak and Wawrinka ATP BNP Paribas Open tennis semifinal at Paris Masters Nov 7 2015, at 9:00 PM. Watch Novak Djokovic VS. S. Wawrinka ATP BNP Paribas Live
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