NOTE: This is my own version of draw analysis on 2010 French Open. In this self-version of draw analysis, I will pick who I think will be 2010 French Open Men's Champion.
Last year's season of French Open, made buzz around the world when the King of Clay Rafael Nadal was stunned by the hard-hitting Swede Robin Soderling in the fourth round, in arguably one of the greatest upset in the history of French Open. Talking about the upset, history and record books were rewritten when No.2 seed Roger Federer played the greatest match of his life to capture the coveted French Open title that eludes him for years.
A month of warm-up events heading to this year's second Grand Slam, history was made again. That is, to the extent of the man that was stunned at the grandest stage of Roland Garros a year ago, Nadal. Yes, the King of Clay is back and he is stronger and fiercer than before. Within a month, he captures his six consecutive title at Monte-Carlo after 11 months of title drought, then he clinched his five titles at Rome. At 23 years old and 11 months, a win at Madrid finally breaks Andre Agassi's number of ATP World Tour Masters 1000 with 18 titles, not only that, because Nadal has been the first man to win three clay court ATP Masters 1000. With such performance, it is far from impossible not to win his fifth French Open title. Who can stop the reign of the King of Clay... again?
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| Roger Federer 2009 French Open Men's Champion |
The Quarters - Part 1
A year after Federer reached the finals in all Grand Slam events, he's back at Roland Garros for the first time as a defending champion. But defending his maiden French Open title, may not be easy he will be facing numerous dangerous players for his title defense. With not so good results, at the clay court warm-up events, most notably his early exit at ATP Masters 1000 Rome losing to Ernests Gulbis in second round. But reaching the finals at ATP Masters 1000 Madrid where he is the defending champion, somehow salvage his poor clay performance. How Federer will fare in this year's second Grand Slam as the defending champion?
The No.1 seed will open his match against Aussie Peter Luczak and a possible meeting with Serb Janko Tipsarevic, who pushed him to five sets in the third round of 2008 Australian Open. A third round potential meeting with No.27 seed Feliciano Lopez will most likely get underway, but he needed to gets past of the possible encounter with the Belgian Olivier Rochus in the second. The Belgian can cause upset as what he did to No.3 seed Novak Djokovic at ATP Masters 1000 Miami and to No.5 seed Soderling at Open de Nice Côte d’Azur in Nice in their opening matches.
Federer could possibly meet No.13 seed Gael Monfils in the round of 16, the repeat of their quarterfinal match in last year's French Open, where the Frenchman was defeated in straight sets. But before setting up a possible meeting with the No.1 seed, Monfils must gets past No.20 seed Stanislas Wawrinka, who was defeated by Federer in Madrid. Monfils and Wawrinka has an even record in their career meeting 1-1, but this will be their possible first meeting on clay. Given the crowd behind him, Monfils looking to have an edged but with his current form, it seems the Wawrinka will take full advantage of it.
No.5 seed Soderling, Nadal's conqueror last year, opens his match against Frenchman wildcard Laurent Recouderc, but his test will begin when he meet No.29 seed Spaniard Albert Montanes, who stunned Federer in the semifinals at Estoril. If Soderling advanced, a possible encounter with one of the two young talents will put him to a real test. The No.10 seed Marin Cilic or the red-hot No.23 seed Gulbis (Cilic leads 1-0), who show stunning performance to ousts Federer and made Nadal work in Rome.
Should Soderling progress, he will meet Federer for a place in the semifinals, the repeat of last year's French Open final where Federer won in straight sets for his historical 14th Grand Slam title. Though the Swede defeated the Swiss at Capitala World Tennis Championship in Abu Dhabi, still the No.5 seed 0-12 against Federer. Will Soderling be able to repeat the performance that upset Nadal a year ago to upset Federer? Or will Soderling take advantage of Federer's vulnerability of late and post the first win over the No.1 seed to prevent him from defending his title?
Semifinalist: Federer
Player to watch: Gulbis, as he's been in red-hot form during European clay court season. Let's see on how he sustain that form as the event switches into the grandest stage where the competition is really high.
Player to watch: Gulbis, as he's been in red-hot form during European clay court season. Let's see on how he sustain that form as the event switches into the grandest stage where the competition is really high.
The Quarters - Part 2
History has been in the process such as waiting for the homegrown talent to emerge victorious in their own event. Likewise, it is waiting for a hero to be triumphant at any Grand Slam event. That was the case of Andy Murray. For the second Grand Slam of the year, the same pressure of winning the Grand Slam is still on his shoulders. That pressure? Well, it is merely more than 70 years of waiting, that's how hungry British people are.
If British people is experiencing hunger, that is also felt by French people. For more than 25 years, they've been experiencing title drought. With a number of homegrown talents are trying, they fell short. Of course, whoever French player come out on the court, the crowd will always be on their side to support. Will this be the year for the French community to end that long wait?
But I think they will wait until the event will be held on their own ground in this year's Wimbledon, because Murray hasn't been a good performer on clay courts. At least he reached quarterfinals last year but considering his current form, that is most likely unmatched.
Who's hunger will be over, at least have a chance to go beyond?
As Murray play his opening match against the unseeded Richard Gasquet. The underachiever Gasquet has been out of the game for a long time is now on the comeback trail and will try to give his countrymen a hope in the coveted triumph. As Gasquet leads Murray 3-1 in their career meeting, this will be their first match on clay. With Gasquet recently won at Nice for his sixth career title beating No.7 seed Fernando Verdasco in the process, Murray is put in a tough test. As pressure on Murray will definitely mount, the question is how will he handle this? I smell an upset here and this will definitely Murray's earliest exit at Grand Slams since 2008 Australian Open.
Gasquet is carrying enough confidence to progress. A possible encounter with wildcard American Ryan Sweeting or Argentine Juan Ignacio Chela in the second round. In the third round, he could possibly face No.25 seed Marcos Baghdatis, but that is, if the Cypriot gets past American Jesse Witten, who overcame No.4 seed Brazilian Marcos Daniel in the first round of the qualifying match 7-6(7-2)|4-6|17-15. Gasquest and Baghdatis met at Sydney in January 2010 for their first meeting, where the Cypriot emerge victorious in straight sets. However, with the crowd support will be given to Gasquet, it will add confidence and most likely advanced to the next round where he will potentially meet the winner of the possible clash of No.17 seed John Isner and No.15 seed Tomas Berdych, with Isner leads Berdych in their sole meeting.
On the bottom half of this quarter, No.8 seed Jo-Wilfred Tsonga opens his campaign against German Daniel Brands, with a potential meeting to his fellow Frenchman, the wildcard Josselin Ouanna. In the third round, Tsonga could face No.32 seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who opens his match against Rainer Schuettler, but needs to finished his business against a possible meeting with the unseeded Thiemo de Bakker. The unseeded de Bakker, the sleeping dark horse in this section might cause some damage and if he progresses, Tsonga will be in serious threat. In the fourth round, a couple of serious contenders might spoil Tsonga's quest. First, the No.21 seed Tommy Robredo who opens his match against Viktor Troicki and will possibly meet No.11 seed Mikhail Youzhny in the third round.
Robredo, the clay court specialist, will be the serious test for Tsonga. Should he advanced, a potential clash with fellow countryman Gasquet or No.17 seed Isner will be underway for the semifinal slot. Will the American has an extra weapon to spoil the party of the Frenchmen and be the hope of American to end the long title drought?
Semifinalist: Isner
Match to watch: The first round clash between Murray and Gasquet. They both carry history in their shoulders, therefore they both feel heavy pressure. This will be an interesting match and a treat for the spectators. Who will be able to handle the pressure properly?
Player to watch: Witten, as his qualifying is the toughest test to get into the main draw. Will that test be transform into confidence to go deep and do some serious damage in the draw?
Match to watch: The first round clash between Murray and Gasquet. They both carry history in their shoulders, therefore they both feel heavy pressure. This will be an interesting match and a treat for the spectators. Who will be able to handle the pressure properly?
Player to watch: Witten, as his qualifying is the toughest test to get into the main draw. Will that test be transform into confidence to go deep and do some serious damage in the draw?
The Quarters - Part 3
After winning his maiden title at 2008 Australian Open at the expense of beating Federer in the semifinals and Tsonga in the finals, No.3 seed Djokovic is quite underrated to repeat such feat. The retirement even at the prestigious event had been widely talk about. Considering the he is one of the top contender for the title at every Grand Slam event, that's not been the case. Since 2008, Djokovic has not reached a final in the last eight Grand Slam event. Will this be a chance for Djokovic to see himself in a final, he is drawn at Nadal section of the draw?
No.3 seed opens his campaign against Evgeny Korolev and will not be hardly tested until he reach the round of 16 where he could face American Sam Querrey, who opens his match against fellow American Robby Ginepri, or former world No.1 and No.16 seed Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Meanwhile, No.6 seed Andy Roddick has not been a fan in playing on clay but his effort in last year's French Open resulted good as he reached fourth round where he lost to Monfils. This years season, with not much warm-up on clay, Roddick will try to go beyond fourth round as his opening match will be against the lefty Jarkko Nieminen. The threat to Roddick's path to round of 16 will be No.26 seed Argentine Juan Monaco, who recently defeated Querrey in the final at Dusseldorf. If Roddick advanced, he will have a tough time to book a spot in the quarterfinals as No.9 seed David Ferrer possibly awaits.
The two Spaniards claim three clay titles this year, with two titles for Ferrero and one title for Ferrer. Having said that this draw will be dominated by these Spaniards and will most likely to meet in the quarterfinals.
Semifinalist: Ferrero
Match to watch: The first round match between two Americans, Querrey and Ginepri, which ensures that there's one American that will advance to second round.
Player to watch: Nishikori, as he's back in a Grand Slam main draw. Is he up for the challenge and do some damage in the draw?
Match to watch: The first round match between two Americans, Querrey and Ginepri, which ensures that there's one American that will advance to second round.
Player to watch: Nishikori, as he's back in a Grand Slam main draw. Is he up for the challenge and do some damage in the draw?
The Quarters - Part 4
The King of Clay is back!!! It seems like he's never been out of the game and he's been getting better and seems like untouchable again. With no shadow that his knees injured, Nadal is on the quest to dominate men's tennis as he did in 2008.
The No.2 seed plays his opening match against the French wildcard Gianni Mina. This will be followed by the potential meeting the unseeded Argentine Horacio Zeballos, who helped Monaco to claim the title for Argentina in ARAG ATP World Team Championship at Dusseldorf. Will Nadal be tested by Zeballos? Maybe. Or not. A possible clash with No.28 seed Lleyton Hewitt in the third round, who open his match against the unseeded Frenchman Jeremy Chardy. This might be an easy path for Nadal going into round of eight, but No.14 seed Ivan Ljubicic is blocking his way in the round of 16.
Ljubicic, who stunned Nadal in the semifinals at Indian Wells, plays his first round match against the unseeded Yen-Hsu Lu and most likely to meet American Mardy Fish in the second round, that is, if Fish gets past German Michael Berrer. For a spot in the round of 16, he could meet the No.24 seed Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci, who opens his match against Frenchman Michael Llodra. Can Ljubicic repeat such stunning performance to upset Nadal in his favorite surface?
In the other half of this quarter lead by No.7 seed Verdasco, plays his opening round match against the unseeded Russian Igor Kunitsyn. The Spaniard could have a potential encounter with No.30 Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round. The dangerous German can upset anyone on any court at any given day, but can he handle Verdasco's strength? In the fourth round, Verdasco could face the winner of the possible clash between the No.12 seed and last year's French Open semifinalist Fernando Gonzales or fellow Spaniard and No.19 seed Nicolas Almagro, who pushed Nadal to three sets in the semifinals at Madrid Open.
Gonzales knows how to move his feet on clay, but will lack of matches on clay might pay the price. Hence, this will probably the battle of the clay court specialist for a place in the quarterfinals where Nadal awaits. Verdasco won all his matches on clay with Almagro, thus leading 3-0 in their head-to-head, will probably progressed. Verdasco, who recently lost to Gasquet at Nice, was lost to Nadal in the most lopsided match by just winning the only game against the fellow Spaniard. By setting up a clash with Nadal for a place in the semifinals is the hardest task for Verdasco to take. Does he really have what it takes to down Nadal on clay? Maybe winning more games than one...
Semifinalist: Nadal
Player to watch: Fish, as one of the Americans who is trying to break the spell on clay.
Player to watch: Fish, as one of the Americans who is trying to break the spell on clay.
The Semifinals
Federer vs. Isner: Federer found himself in his 24th straight semifinal appearances since Wimbledon 2004 while the young American Isner is playing his first semifinal appearance and on clay court. The sole American hope will try to pull off an upset over the No.1 seed. Will the young gun has an extra gear to cause that upset? Possibly. Or not. In their sole meeting in 2007 US Open, Isner took out a set from Federer, so that cannot be count out. As for Federer, this is another opportunity for him to be in the finals for the fifth consecutive years and he might meet his great rival, Nadal, that surely another interesting match as their rivalry continues to spark. For Federer, a second straight French Open title? We’ll see. Federer in straight sets.
Ferrero vs. Nadal: These two Spaniards met nine times and Nadal winning each time except for two. On clay, Ferrero downed Nadal once in six attempts. In this 10th series, their seventh meeting on clay since this year’s ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo, Davis Cup teammates are both on a roll and back in their old self, but Nadal has done way ahead to Ferrero. Though Ferrero has clinched two titles this season, Nadal has been untouchable in claiming his three straight big clay titles ending the drought for 11 months. To sum it up, Ferrero needs to swing it out to stunned his fellow countryman, but given Nadal’s form the last year’s upset might not happen this time, at least for this moment. Nadal in straight sets.
Finalist: Federer, Nadal
The Finals
As the renewed and reignited rivalry continues and have been brought to another level, are we expecting some hype in their 22nd meeting? Yes. That's how spectacular when this two great players meet on court. Their creativity in every match they play brings excitement to tennis fanatics. So, what's in store in their fifth meeting at Roland Garros?
Nadal edged Federer with another match, making their career series to 14-7. As Federer defends his title, Nadal wants his crown back. Is the Swiss Maestro has what it takes to down Nadal on clay in the prestigious tournament? If there is, what took him so long to do so? Or he just can't simply match Nadal's excellence?
Federer and Nadal always show us the match of their life. And that's the reason, their generation rewrote and go on rewriting history. Having said that, the question still remains the same. Who will win the 2010 French Open? I'll bet on the man who is trying too hard for so long to win this title over his great rival. I do think this will be the sweetest victory he will ever taste in his career. Federer in tight five sets.
Champion: Roger Federer
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